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| Alf Field: Elliott Wave |
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| Source |
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| James Kunstler: "Not Your Grandma's Depression" |
Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2008 8:14 AM
Subject: James Kunstler: "Not Your Grandma's Depression" ... |
| Source |
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| letter from Bill Gross of PIMCO to Obama. |
| Dear President Obama: ... |
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| Avoid Dollar `At All Costs,' Investor Rogers Says (Update2) |
| Avoid Dollar `At All Costs,' Investor Rogers Says (Update2) ... |
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| Central Bankers Warn of 'Tipping Point' |
Central Bankers Warn of 'Tipping Point'
By PAUL HANNON and NINA KOEPPEN
July 1, 2008; Page C2 ... |
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| TRIBUTE PAID IN OIL |
| TRIBUTE PAID IN OIL ... |
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| The delusional complacency that the “worst is behind us” is rapidly melting away… |
The delusional complacency that the “worst is behind us” is rapidly melting away…and the risk of another run against systemically important broker dealers
Nouriel Roubini | Jun 27, 2008
After the collapse in mid-March of Bear Stearns and the ensuing bailout of Bear’s creditors and the extension of the Fed’s lender of last resort support to systemically important members of the “shadow banking system” (the non-bank broker dealers that are primary dealers) a sense of delusional complacency emerged in financial markets based on fairy tales such as “the worst is behind us”, the “recession will be short and shallow”, that “housing is bottoming out” or even that “we will avoid the recession”. This chorus of cheerleaders included policy makers that had missed the incoming financial tsunami for most of 2007, CEOs and senior financial sector folks who had lost hundreds of billions of dollars with their reckless lending, and investments and a bunch of self serving spin-masters talking non-stop their long books on CNBC and other financial media. This circus of “the worst is behind us” became a pathetic and louder chorus in the two months from mid-March till the end of May. This delusion was for a short couple of months supported by rising stock prices, reduction in credit spreads and interbank spread that, however, remained very high and indicated a persistent liquidity and credit crunch.
But this delusional complacency is now rapidly collapsing as financial markets are back to panic mode. Let’s detail how…... |
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| The Shrinking Influence of the US Federal Reserve |
WEST WING
The Shrinking Influence of the US Federal Reserve
By Gabor Steingart in Washington ... |
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| Commodities vs Gold |
| This list is the work of www.jsmineset.com and I find it quite interesting. First, it shows stocks were a bad bet and I believe we still have some more downside. Secondly, gold has underperformed most commodities and will catch up, probably faster than most think. ... |
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| Morgan Stanley warns of 'catastrophic event' as ECB fights Federal Reserve |
| Morgan Stanley warns of 'catastrophic event' as ECB fights Federal Reserve ... |
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| Morgan Stanley trading results marred by trader |
It is absolutely amazing how many rogue traders there are in the world. Read the comments by the Morgan official that says "we are very angry about it,... one would expect to see people misbehave..."
If you expect it, then you should have been prepared. You have to be really ignorant to make a comment like that.... |
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| RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert |
| RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert ... |
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| Federal Reserve and ECB are in no mood to save us from the consequences of our debt |
| Federal Reserve and ECB are in no mood to save us from the consequences of our debt ... |
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| Total Notional Value Of Derivatives Outstanding Surpasses One Quadrillion |
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear CIGAs,
The notional value of all outstanding derivatives now totals approximately $1.144 QUADRILLION.
This appears to be Bank of International Settlement Spin to announce the largest gain in derivatives outstanding since they started to report. As of the last report it appeared that both listed and OTC derivatives was under $600 trillion. Now listed credit derivatives alone stood at $548 Trillion. The OTC derivatives are shown as $596 trillion notional value, as of December 2007. One can only imagine what number they are at now.
Well we hit a QUADRILLION. We have more than $1000 trillion dollars in all derivatives outstanding. That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt. $548 trillion plus $596 trillion means $1.144 quadrillion.
It would be an interesting piece of research to see what the breakdown is of listed derivatives according to exchange to see if it adds up to the reported number. Spin is now everywhere.
This means that no OTC derivative house can be allowed to go broke. This means that whatever funds are required to rescue failing international investment banks, banks and financial entities will be provided.
Keep this economic law in mind. Monetary inflation proceeds price inflation and is its primary cause in economic history from Rome to present.
Nothing can stop the juggernaut of price inflation heading towards every nation like a runaway freight train down a mountain.
Gold is going to at least $1650. I am probably way too low with that estimate.
The US dollar will trade down to at least .5200 as measured by the USDX.
Gold is the easiest market to trade for the aggressive investor. Sell 1/3 when the market looks like a Rhino Horn which you will see with your French Curves at the point of the rollover.
Buy 1/3 back when the price of gold looks like a fishing line hanging off a fishing rod. Your maximum power down trend line will give you this. ... |
|
| An Important Juncture Approaches |
| An Important Juncture Approaches ... |
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| Nassim Nicholas Taleb: the prophet of boom and doom |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: the prophet of boom and doom
When this man said the world’s economy was heading for disaster, he was scorned. Now traders, economists, even Nasa, are clamouring to hear him speak ... |
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| --- Eliot Spitzer (former Governor, New York) |
From Marc Farber
"The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate.
If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it
on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer it will go to India.
If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and
Guatemala. If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany. If we
purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan, and none of it will help the
American economy.
The only way to keep that money here at home is to
spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still
produced in US. I've been doing my part, and I thank you for your help!"
--- Eliot Spitzer (former Governor, New York)
... |
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| NO END IN SIGHT TO MARKET WOES SAY TRICHET, BUFFETT: MAY 19, 2008 |
NO END IN SIGHT TO MARKET WOES SAY TRICHET, BUFFETT: MAY 19, 2008 LONDON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The end to the credit crunch is still not in sight, European Central Bank President, Jean-Claude Trichet and Warren Buffett, the world's most famous stock market investor, warned on Monday.
"These are demanding times, challenging times... It is an ongoing, very significant market correction," Trichet told BBC radio in Britain.
Buffett, whose years of shrewd investing have earnt him a fortune estimated at $62 billion by Forbes magazine and the nickname "the sage of Omaha," struck a similar tone at a news conference in Frankfurt.
"I'll talk about the United States. I don't think the effects of the credit crunch are far from over at all. I think there will be rippling secondary, tertiary effects."
Trichet and Buffett's comments come after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week the healing process from the credit crisis would take some time.
Deutsche Bank's Chief Executive Josef Ackermann was more upbeat however in an interview over the weekend.
"I think that we are getting closer to the end of the financial crisis," Ackermann told the Swiss Sunday newspaper Sonntagsblick. "It is not fully over yet, but the signs from the United States are encouraging."
With market turbulence persisting, Trichet added governments and financial decision makers needed to keep an iron grip on oil and food price fuelled inflation.
"We have this accumulation of the oil shock, the food and agro-products shock... Price stability and credibility in price stability in the medium term is the best way to have a high level of sustainable (economic) growth and sustainable job creation."
OIL SLICK
Trichet also warned governments not to make the wrong moves and risk the knock-on "second round effects" of inflation, such as higher wages, which followed the last oil price shock in the 1970s.
These, he said, had "enshrined the high level of inflation for a long period of time" and led to mass unemployment in Europe.
Oil prices remain within sight of $130 a barrel because of unrelenting demand, speculative buying, global tensions and supply snags.
The surge is causing widespread headaches for the global economy by pushing up the price of almost everything and is creating a number of problems for Trichet's ECB and other central banks.
While some of the 15 euro zone countries look in danger of following the U.S. into a sharp economic slowdown, near record inflation in the region has given the Frankfurt-based central bank little room for maneuver with regards to interest rates which have been on hold at 4 percent for the last 11 months.
(Reporting by Kate Kelland and Jonathan Gould. Writing by Marc Jones and Mike Shields, Editing by Tim Castle/Gerrard Raven)
Copyright 2008 Reuters
... |
|
| Global European Anticipation Bulletin -RECOMMENDED READ |
Global European Anticipation Bulletin -RECOMMENDED READ
"...once the mirage of a crisis-under-control fades away at the beginning of this summer 2008" - nice quote ... |
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| Inflate Away Debt? Three Lessons From History |
Inflate Away Debt? Three Lessons From History
Adrian Ash
BullionVault
16 May, 2008 ... |
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| Bloomberg: China Quake's $20 Billion Damage Show Insurance Abyss |
| ... |
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| The Fed is Getting Desperate in Dealing with a Liquidity Crunch that Shows Little Signs of Relenting |
| ... |
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| India may impose a ban on trading in food futures |
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- India is reportedly considering a ban on futures trading in food commodities, as the government struggles to curb soaring inflation and the rising cost of food has become a major international concern.
India's finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said Monday that he was considering a blanket ban on trading in food futures, according to a report in The Financial Times.
Chidambaram said that governments across Asia share his worries over speculation in the commodities markets, the FT reported.
India is "facing a very grave crisis on the food front," the minister said on the sidelines of the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting in Madrid, according to the FT. ... |
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| Bloomberg: Bernanke May Have to Do More to Ease Jump in Bank Funding Costs |
| ... |
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| Bloomberg: Confidence in Thain Turnaround Wilts as Merrill's Debt Weakens |
| ... |
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| "OUTSIDE THE BOX" |
How To Fix It
By Michael E. Lewitt ... |
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| The Mega Commodity Move: Why it's Happening |
| The precious metals have been soaring. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium… you name it. If it’s a metal, it’s been booming. The same is true of other commodities too. ... |
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| John Embry - "Sit Tight - Don't Let Gold's Volatility Bother You" - GATA |
| ... |
| Source |
|
| Till Debt Us Do Part |
Till Debt Us Do Part
Alf Field
17 Mar, 2008 ... |
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| Bloomberg: Thornburg Hasn't Met $270 Million in New Margin Call |
| ... |
| Source |
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| Gold Near $1000, by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden |
| Gold Near $1000 ... |
| Source |
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| Nouriel Roubini: "The Staggering Fiscal Costs of Bailing Out a Financial System in Crisis" |
| "Even for a rich country like the US 19% of GDP (or $2.7 trillion of additional public debt) is not spare change nor is a “fiscal bagatelle”. And saddling every US household with an additional $30,000 of debt in perpetuity is not small burden either. And all this is true even leaving aside the other $10 trillion plus of losses in the net worth of the US private sector (fall in the value of residential real estate and commercial real estate, and in the value of the stock market) that a severe recession and financial crisis would imply." ... |
|
| Pretty much sums it up?? |
| Indian Chief 'Two Eagles' was asked by a white government official, 'You have observed the white man for 90 years. You've seen his wars and his technological advances. You've seen his progress, and the damage he's done.' ... |
|
| John Hussman: Financials Can't Quantify Their Own Risks, Let Alone Others' - GOOD ARTICLE |
| "According to Bloomberg, over half of the world's trading in the credit swaps market is concentrated among five banks: J.P. Morgan (26%), Citigroup (10%), UBS Warburg (9%), Bank of America (7%) and Deutsche Bank (7%). As Warren Buffett has noted, ‘Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have been concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one another. The trouble of one could quickly infect the others." ... |
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| Record Highs Keep Coming |
| Record Highs Keep Coming ... |
| Source |
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| America’s middle classes are no longer coping,By Robert Reich |
America’s middle classes are no longer coping
By Robert Reich ... |
|
| YouTube - The Long Johns - The Last Laugh - George Parr - Subprime |
| ... |
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| Bloombeg: Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Fall as Slumping U.S. Economy Cuts Demand |
| ... |
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| Wave Gold Update XVII |
| For an excellent road map on gold, read this article at www.321gold.com This man is one of the few who real knows what he is talking about. ... |
| Source |
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| UBS admits that it still cannot quantify its exposure to sub-prime crisis |
| Here is an article found in the Sunday Times. This is a subject I deal with in tonight's report which you'll receive later. One of the best banks in the world doesn't know how to calculate a loss! Where does that leave one of the worse like Citibank? ... |
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| ALF FIELD ARTICLE |
| Into the Abyss ... |
| Source |
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| ANDEN ARTICLE |
| Mega Move Underway, Stay With It ... |
| Source |
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| Reuters.com - Goldman, JP Morgan See Fed Cutting 50 Bps in Jan |
Goldman, JP Morgan See Fed Cutting 50 Bps in Jan
Fri Jan 04 23:02:00 UTC 2008 ... |
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| "The Next Dominos: Junk Bond And Counterparty Risk" - A JOHN MAULDIN "MUST READ" |
| ... |
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| Bloomberg; Feldstein Says Economy Is `Weak,' Fed Should Cut Rates: Video |
| ... |
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| Why the Fed Will Cut and Cut Again- Articule |
| Why the Fed Will Cut and Cut Again
by John Mauldin
November 2, 2007
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In this issue:
Why the Fed Will Cut and Cut Again
Payroll Survey Sausage
When a Positive 166,000 Jobs Number is Really a Negative 211,000
Round Two of the Credit Crunch
A Few Thoughts on Bias
New York, the Marines, and the Mavericks
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The economy added 166,000 new jobs last month, almost double the average estimate. GDP for the US came in at a blowout 3.9% growth, well above trend. The Fed cut its rate by another 25 basis points, but many observers see language in the accompanying statement which they think suggests the Fed is done with cutting, at least for now, as the economy appears stronger.
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see dayli update 11.6.2007... |
|
| Goldman Sachs: Traitors And Con Artists |
Goldman Sachs: Traitors And Con Artists
Elaine Meinel Supkis
Oct 16, 2007 ... |
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| Basel regulators believe crisis far from over-source, |
| Basel regulators believe crisis far from over-source... |
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| Bloomberg: Subprime Panic Freezes $40 Billion of Canadian Commercial Paper |
| ... |
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| The credit crisis could be just beginning |
The credit crisis could be just beginning
Submitted by cpowell on Sat, 2007-09-22 02:51. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jon D. Markman
TheStreet.com
Friday, September 21, 2007
http://www.thestreet.com/s/the-credit-crisis-could-be-just-beginning/new...
Satyajit Das is laughing. It appears I have said something very funny, but I have no idea what it was. My only clue is that the laugh sounds somewhat pitying.
One of the world's leading experts on credit derivatives (financial instruments that transfer credit risk from one party to another), Das is the author of a 4,200-page reference work on the subject, among a half-dozen other tomes. As a developer and marketer of the exotic instruments himself over the past 30 years, he seemed like the ideal industry insider to help us get to the bottom of the recent debt crunch -- and I expected him to defend and explain the practice.
I started by asking the Calcutta-born Australian whether the credit crisis was in what Americans would call the "third inning." This was pretty amusing, it seemed, judging from the laughter. So I tried again. "Second inning?" More laughter. "First?" Still too optimistic.
Das, who knows as much about global money flows as anyone in the world, stopped chuckling long enough to suggest that we're actually still in the middle of the national anthem before a game destined to go into extra innings. And it won't end well for the global economy.
...Ursa Major ... |
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| John Embry: Lending crisis sets U.S. dollar on fatal course - GATA |
| ... |
| Source |
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| In gold we trust |
In gold we trust
By Chan Akya ... |
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| Requiem for an Economist |
Requiem for an Economist
Jump to Comments
Ouzilly, France ... |
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| Is China quietly dumping US Treasuries? |
| Is China quietly dumping US Treasuries? ... |
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| "America, you're about to go back to school the hard way." |
| "America, you're about to go back to school the hard way." ... |
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| ... |
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| WHERE’S THE GOLD?,Hugo Salinas Price |
WHERE’S THE GOLD?... |
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